Are Intelligence Failures Still Inevitable?

Nimbers are inevitable

This article concerns the resolution of impartial combinatorial games, and in particular games that can be split in sums of independent positions. We prove that in order to compute the outcome of a sum of independent positions, it is always more efficient to compute separately the nimbers of each independent position than to develop directly the game tree of the sum. The concept of nimber is th...

Are Crises Inevitable?

Recessions and other crises seem to occur without any large exogenous shocks. One theory is that this is due to strategic complementarities: the incentive to invest is stronger if others are expected to invest. If, in addition, each investor observes a slightly noisy signal of the true fundamentals, a crisis occurs whenever fundamentals fall below a certain threshold (Morris and Shin, AER 1998)...

Medicare part d: still more failures.

Intelligence Failures: An Organizational Economics Perspective

T wo recent failures of the U.S. intelligence system have led to the creation of high-level investigative commissions. The failure to prevent the terrorist attacks of 9/11 prompted the creation of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States (2004), hereafter called the 9/11 Commission, and the mistaken belief that Saddam Hussein had retained weapons of mass destruction p...

The Organizational Design of Intelligence Failures

While the detection, and prevention, of the September 11, 2001 plot would have been ideal, I argue that the more major intelligence failures occurred after the attacks of September 11. The erroneous intelligence concerning the WMD presence in Iraq permitted the Bush Administration to order the invasion of Iraq. Systematic underestimates of the budgetary costs and personnel requirements of the w...